Watch the SA 2020 Scenarios Project webinar by clicking the image above.

In 2002, the African Leadership Institute (AFLI) launched the SA2020 Scenarios project, bringing together a cohort of visionary young leaders tasked with forecasting various futures for South Africa to guide strategic policymaking. This initiative aimed not just at predicting, but actively shaping, the future amidst significant societal challenges of the time.
 
Today, as we observe these scenarios unfolding in real life, their creators hold key positions across various sectors, influencing the course of South Africa's development. In response to the upcoming 2024 elections, Good Governance Africa (GGA) has initiated a series of webinars focused on revisiting these scenarios. These discussions deepen the understanding of South Africa's developmental journey since SA2020, with outcomes designed to inform future initiatives and policy decisions for inclusive growth.
 
As South Africa nears its 2024 elections, marking thirty years of democracy, GGA is committed to disseminating insights that not only reflect on the past but also on its implications for the future. This effort is crucial as almost a third of African nations, including Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia, prepare for elections this year. The conduct and credibility of these elections will act as a litmus test for the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) effectiveness in upholding democratic practices.
 
Despite SADC’s efforts, through initiatives like the SADC Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections (2004), challenges persist. Recent elections, such as Zimbabwe’s, highlight the discrepancy between the ideal of democratic governance and the complex political realities on the ground. Sikhululekile Mashingaidze’s sobering analysis emphasises the limitations of SADC’s role in these electoral processes, noting the gap between the organisation's democratic mandates and its practical capabilities.


Moreover, the sophisticated techniques used by some states to undermine electoral integrity illustrate the urgent necessity for frameworks that empower the electorate to demand accountability. It is critical to ensure that voters can have faith in the integrity of the electoral process; it is also, however, critical to address the drivers of voter apathy, lest democratic backsliding accelerate. Addressing corruption, therefore, remains a critical part of our focus at GGA. Please read our latest Africa in Fact publication on the matter, and our article on the economic impact of corruption.
 
Looking towards the 2024 elections, insights from past scenario planning and ongoing analysis of electoral integrity are indispensable. They not only provide benchmarks but also serve as blueprints for aspiring towards a more democratic, stable, and prosperous Southern Africa. 

 
Dr Ross Harvey
Director of Research and Programmes

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