Aerial view of Lagos Island, Nigeria. Photo: Olasunkanmi Ariyo / Getty Images 

Earlier this week, Newsweek published an article by Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the governor of Nigeria’s Lagos State. His article on the future of Africa’s cities offers a timely contribution to the central theme of this month’s edition of Africa in Fact: “Urban Africa: Worlds Apart?’

Sanwo-Olu’s core premise is that this year, Africa will overtake Asia as the world’s fastest-growing region. He argues that this shift positions the continent’s cities as the primary drivers of the “next era of global growth”.

This perspective is central to the current issue of Africa in Fact, which interrogates the dynamics of urbanisation across the continent and asks whether African cities can successfully transition from sites of “survivalist urbanisation” to becoming robust engines of sustainable, inclusive growth. 

Sanwo-Olu makes an important point regarding the perception of this economic shift. He argues that while the immediate instinct of investors, policymakers, and multinational firms is to identify which specific African countries will lead this rise, “it risks posing the wrong question: it will be cities that power Africa’s economic transformation”.

 


As he points out, “The continent is already urbanising on a scale and at a speed unmatched in history. By the middle of this century, it will also be the only region with a growing working-age population. Few forces will shape the 21st-century global economy more profoundly. Yet not long ago, the African megacity was viewed with apprehension rather than optimism – places where swelling populations overwhelmed weak institutions and strained social order, omens of a wider disorder to come. My city of Lagos was often held up as the archetype. In a 1994 article, the writer Robert Kaplan notoriously described it as ‘cliché par excellence of Third World urban dysfunction’.” 

For scale, Sanwo-Olu notes that if Lagos were a sovereign economy, it would be Africa’s fifth largest, ahead of Kenya. He also points out that Amsterdam-based data management company Dealroom recently ranked Lagos as the world’s top emerging tech hub.


Elsewhere in the article, his description of Lagos as “remain[ing] restless and occasionally chaotic” will resonate with those of us who live in a 21st-century African city. Yet, as he rightly adds, “In many ways, this is inseparable from the unique energy that powers economic dynamism and capacity for reinvention – qualities that have long defined the world’s great commercial cities.” 

But, as our own writers ably illustrate, despite this momentum, the transition toward sustainable growth remains incomplete, witnessed by the tension between the potential of Africa’s urban centres and the reality of their current infrastructure and governance models. If our cities are the engines of transformation Sanwo-Olu describes, then the capacity to manage them effectively – to provide services, infrastructure, and an enabling environment for business – is critical to success. These include the massive deficits in housing, transport, and energy that currently hamper the productivity of many African metropolises. 

Sanwo-Olu’s article serves as a reminder that the development of these urban hubs is not merely a local concern but rather a global economic necessity, even as the transformation of Africa’s cityscapes will dictate the continent’s economic trajectory. Finally, the governor’s argument that cities are the true units of growth provides a strong framework for our own analysis of whether these urban centres can bridge the gap between their current realities and their latent economic potential.

It’s clear that while the growth is inevitable, the quality of that growth remains a choice. Whether cities like Lagos, Johannesburg, Nairobi and even Cairo remain fragmented, survivalist spaces or engines of prosperity depends on the decisions made today regarding urban governance and planning.

To read the complete collection of articles in the current issue of AIF, please go to africainfact.com.


Susan Russell – Editor, Africa in Fact

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