Read between the lines #81

US President Donald Trump speaks at the Commander-In-Chief inaugural ball at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)

Welcome back, and here’s hoping we all achieve some meaningful wins in 2025.
 
It was all eyes and ears on Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration speech this week, and although surprising in its detail of what he plans to do at home, it did not yield anything new or unexpected in terms of implications for Africa. For a recap of our initial evaluation of the potential implications of a Trump presidency for Africa, click here.
 
We have known for a long time that Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra, which he repeated in his speech, aligns with his administration's energy policies aimed at deregulating the oil and gas industry, reducing environmental restrictions, and encouraging the growth of the US fossil fuel sector.
 
We also anticipated his suspension of US foreign aid; Trump’s order to do so stating that the foreign aid industry and bureaucracy “are not aligned with American interests and in many cases antithetical to American values”. Paired with that is the uncertain future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), expiring this year, in the context of Trump’s drive to reduce reliance on foreign production.
 
These developments have significant implications for Africa’s economies, particularly the agricultural, manufacturing and mining sectors, although the effects will be indirect. Many US foreign aid programmes focus on developing transportation, energy, and water infrastructure, which are critical for these labour-intensive industries.
 
These issues will no doubt be discussed at the Mining Indaba & Alternative Mining Indaba, taking place from 3-6 February in Cape Town, South Africa. GGA, in partnership with The Resource Exchange and FPIC Solutions Dialogue will be hosting a side event that will focus on the importance of inclusive local governance in communities that host mining activities on 3 February 2025. Look out for our post-analysis piece following this important event. 


Meanwhile, we are keenly awaiting President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address, on 6 February, his first as head of the Government of National Unity (GNU). Last July, following the election, Good Governance Africa put together 10 key areas which the GNU should prioritise, focused strongly on deepening political accountability and fostering greater public participation in our democracy.
 

The SONA will be a good opportunity to gauge where the government is at on these points, so do look out for our follow-up article unpacking the speech and its implications, on our website. It is also sometimes worth reflecting on the pre-election angst we felt at GGA (especially ahead of last year’s SONA), and to celebrate that a GNU/Grand Coalition was formed despite the odds; the landscape could well have turned out rather differently.
 

To brush up on issues facing the rest of the Continent in 2025, please join a webinar hosted by The Africa Center titled ‘Governance in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities in 2025’, in which GGA’s CEO Patrick Kulati will participate as a panellist. It takes place next Wednesday, 29 January.
 

Also, if you’re interested in Economics (and a slightly longer read) I’ve defended the recipients of the latest Nobel Prize in the discipline here.

 
Finally, please look out for the first 2025 edition of Africa in Fact, themed on inclusive conservation and the blue economy, to be published in the week starting 3 February.
 
Until next month, buckle up and stay grounded as we head into an interesting year on the global political stage!

 

Dr Ross Harvey
Director of Research and Programmes

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