As
Donald Trump
prepares to
officially take his
seat in the White
House as US
president on 20
January, there is
much debate
around how his
“America First”
approach to foreign
policy will pan
out.
To understand what US policy
toward sub-Saharan Africa
might look like, a policy
document called Project
2025, produced by a range of
conservative scholars in
2023 for what was then an
envisaged Trump presidency
(now materialised), is
likely to be
the most reliable source of
information.
The caveat of course is that
it is exceedingly unclear at
this stage whether Trump
will follow any kind of
coherent policy-building
programme. Also, Trump has
distanced himself from the
Project 2025 document, but
that might be mere
politicking, and
many in his cabinet are
likely to be adherents.
In essence, this 900-page
document advocates for a
shift from aid to
growth-driven partnerships
in Africa, countering
Chinese influence, improving
counter-terrorism
strategies, and focusing aid
on mutual benefits.
As to US mining interests in
Africa, the overriding
policy sense that emerges is
that a conservative US
administration should be
committed to attaining
energy security, and if that
be in the form of fossil
fuels, so be it. As Trump
puts it, “we will
drill, baby, drill.” To read
my article on this, please
click here.
On
the subject of
mining, GGA’s
executive director
in Nigeria, Dr Ola
Bello, spoke this
week at Nigeria
Mining Week, looking
at illicit mining
and the banditry and
violence that it
enables in the
region. His
observations were
informed by recently
concluded fieldwork
that GGA conducted
in Zamfara state in
the northwest,
exposing a tragic
vortex of
gold-fuelled
destabilisation. For
more on this event,
click
here.
Politics on our
continent,
meanwhile, is
shifting toward a
deepening and
maturing of
democracy, as
demonstrated in the
results of elections
held in almost a
third of African
countries this year
– including South
Africa, Mozambique,
Botswana and
Namibia – which
turned up a couple
of surprises, most
notably the ousting
of Botswana’s
long-governing
Botswana Democratic
Party.
A
continuing
challenge,
though,
is
the
Southern
African
Development
Community’s
limited
capacity
to
address
political
crises
that
emerge
from
contested
elections
or
suspected
election
rigging,
which
in
turn
undermines
its
credibility
in
the
eyes
of
citizens.
Read
GGA
data
analyst
Mmabatho
Mongae’s
analysis
of
this
issue
here.
More
insidious
than
non-intervention
is
intervention
in
the
form
of
disinformation,
a
growing
curse
that
softens
the
ground
for
democratic
backsliding
in
Africa.
Read
Nnaemeka
Ohamadike’s
eye-opening
analysis
of
this
problem,
orchestrated
primarily
by
foreign
actors,
here.
