Africa has witnessed a recent upsurge in unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs), mostly in the form of military coups d’état. Since August 2020, the continent has experienced seven military coups or takeovers in Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Guinea, Mali, Chad, and Gabon, sparking concerns about a resurgence of military rule across Africa.
Notably, Africans appear to support military intervention as a corrective measure for dysfunctional democracies. This is amid calls for the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities, especially the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to address underlying governance issues and reconsider their norms that have eroded deterrence.
Experts, including the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, an academic institution within the US Department of Defense, warn that the continent risks hurtling back to the bad old days of military misgovernance, with coups threatening to undo years of democracy.
The resurgence of coups has also exposed a wider debate over the effectiveness of the AU, and ECOWAS, with critics questioning why the two bodies have struggled to exert influence over the so-called “junta bloc”.
ECOWAS, the AU, and the United Nations Security Council have strongly condemned coups and called on the military to reinstate the deposed leaders and restore constitutional rule, with no effect. Even the imposition of sanctions has had very little effect on the emerging juntas.
The president of the Africa Association of Political Science, Nadine Machikou, told Africa in Fact that removing offending states from ECOWAS would destabilise the bloc, while sanctions hurt the people rather than the military juntas themselves.
“It is important to note that the geographical unity of ECOWAS rests on the inclusion of three states, namely Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger,” she said. “The cost is therefore enormous, both politically and socially.”
According to the head of African futures and innovation at the Institute for Security Studies, Jakkie Cilliers, who also spoke to Africa in Fact, the primary interests of ECOWAS and the AU were solidarity and maintaining the coherence of the membership of both organisations. The decision by Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to leave ECOWAS early last year had therefore been a shock, and African leaders were scrambling to re-establish unity and common purpose.
“The junta bloc reflects, in part, the ongoing search for solutions to the insecurity challenges that beset these countries,” Cilliers said. “Given limited resources, the ability of other countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, etc., to assist in the provision of security is limited.”
What does the resurgence of coups mean for the strength and direction of democratisation processes in Africa?
Achille Mbembe, a political scientist, philosopher and the director of the Foundation of Innovation in Democracy, headquartered in South Africa, has analysed the trend across Africa and believes more coups are likely unless and until ways are found to sustain democratic values.
Similarly, Achilles Tsaltas, the president of the Democracy and Culture Foundation, based in Greece, told Africa in Fact that democracy was under threat and many countries were close to losing it. “Democracy is indeed facing its most severe stress test since the end of the Cold War. The erosion of trust in institutions, the rise of populism, and the weaponisation of disinformation are not just abstract threats; they are daily realities,” Tsaltas said.
He argues that the resurgence of military coups in Africa is a stark reminder that democracy cannot be taken for granted. “When democratic institutions fail to deliver security, prosperity, or justice, the void is filled by force. It also underscores the need for a new approach: democracy must be seen to work.” He said. “This means addressing the root causes of instability: inequality, corruption, and weak governance – while supporting African-led democratic movements and regional cooperation.”
Machikou noted that several tools and indices measuring the state of democracy, which provide data on electoral integrity, civil liberties, and political rights across countries, reveal the intensification of democratic backsliding, not only in Africa but also globally. “If we look at democratic trends on the continent, we can see that many countries are unable to guarantee the freest, most autonomous, egalitarian, productive and sustainable forms of collective life for their citizens, the core of democracy,” Machikou said.
Cilliers agreed that democracy in Africa was under pressure, saying that, for several years, Africa seemed to be resisting the global trend of backsliding. “Now, Africa is part of the general negative trend, in part because the external scaffolding that provided support for democratic forces on the continent is much weaker… yet the domestic demand remains high… In fact, while many push for ‘more’ democracy in Africa, average levels of democracy are roughly what one would expect given levels of development,” said Cilliers.
“Eventually, democracy requires – and responds most cogently to – internal pressures, and these are, increasingly, calls for, among other things, accountability, better governance, and jobs, all of which can only be delivered by more rapid economic growth, not necessarily by democracy… Without investing in stability in Africa, which is a prerequisite for most other things, democracy will not flourish.”
While there are growing criticisms that democracy is not delivering for the people, the latest report from the pan-African research network, Afrobarometer, African Insights 2025: ‘Citizen engagement, citizen power’, released last year, revealed that an overwhelming majority of Africans were in favour of democracy, but more than 60% were dissatisfied with how democracy worked in their countries.
“Political and economic developments in the West, which traditionally advanced and supported democratic advancement and promotion in Africa, have declined, which, in addition to other challenges such as commodity dependence, has translated into democratic backsliding in Africa,” Cilliers said. “The surge in populist policies/parties, including the selfish and self-serving policies of Trump, means that the US, previously often seen as attractive, has lost much of its shine.”
Machikou agreed, adding that the global confrontation between autocrats and democrats was one expression of the re-emergence of great-power rivalry, with Africa as a battlefield for a more complex entanglement, including the politics of debt, investment, and security.
Meanwhile, Musah insists that ECOWAS and other African countries should not abandon democracy but instead, adapt it to local needs. “We need to empower citizens, women, and young people. We cannot support coups,” Musah said.
While acknowledging that democracy was important for Africa, Mbembe said democracy needed to be domesticated for and by Africans.
Similarly, Tsatlas agreed that democracy required renewal. “Democracy is not a static system; it must evolve to meet the needs of its people… The fundamental questions we must answer are, ‘How can democracy deliver for all?’ How can it be more inclusive, more responsive?’ The answer lies in innovation, both in policy and in the mechanisms of governance.”
And that is not all, as Machikou says: “Democracy cannot be understood without state capacity and solid institutions that ensure democracy’s economic viability by enabling it to establish modes of accumulation and systems of wealth redistribution.
“We all see how our states are facing economic challenges… the violence of extraction and capitalist brutality constitute oligarchic and plutocratic excesses that tend to lead to the capture of the state and the commons by the wealthiest. Populations will always turn to populist responses to these structural issues,” Machikou said.
Raphael Obonyo is a public policy analyst. He’s served as a consultant with the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). An alumnus of Duke University, he has authored and co-authored numerous books, including Conversations about the Youth in Kenya (2015). He is a TEDx fellow and has won various awards.
