Can Mugabe create a tranquil and tolerant election environment?
by Ray Ndlovu
Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s president, backed by a powerful military and his ruling party’s vast wealth from the eastern Marange diamond fields, is set to fight for his political survival as he stands against Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai in a new round of elections this year.
On the road to the latest face-off, Mugabe has been careful not to openly provoke a climate of fear and intimidation, a stance that has surprised the main opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Instead, Mugabe has persistently called for peace and tolerance ahead of the elections.
He used the celebrations of the country’s 33rd Independence Day, held on 18 April, to reiterate his stance. “The country is now due to hold harmonised elections, and I wish to urge the nation to uphold and promote peace, you are all Zimbabweans,” Mugabe said. “Go and vote your own way, no one should force you to vote for me. I urge all our people to replicate the peaceful and tranquil environment which characterised the referendum held in March.”
Military personnel and Mugabe’s Zanu-PF supporters killed nearly 300 MDC supporters during the June 2008 election, according to Human Rights Watch, an NGO. A repeat of violence on this scale in the upcoming elections would rob Mugabe of much-needed legitimacy among his regional peers in the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Political observers say SADC member states have hardened their stance against Mugabe since the last election. They hope pre-emptive action will forestall another flood of Zimbabweans into their territories.
“South Africa has borne the brunt of Zimbabwe’s political instability, and the hardline stance by President Jacob Zuma is informed by that position,” said Trevor Maisiri, an analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “In the SADC region, Mugabe is still widely regarded as an elderly statesman and has allies in Zambia, Angola, Mozambique and Tanzania.”
Mugabe, keen to recast himself as a reformer, has been at pains to please all sides within SADC as the new election looms. His political behaviour has strayed from his usual stubbornness: in March, he accepted the results of the referendum for a new constitution (see page 9); his Zanu-PF party continues to engage at a cosmetic level with the MDC in implementing the SADC election roadmap; and he has given free rein to Zuma’s facilitators to hold meetings and resolve differences between the two parties.
The successful adoption of the constitution has catalysed Zanu-PF’s pre-election manoeuvres. The party has pressed for elections to be held at the nearest possible juncture, no later than 29 June, 2013. This position has alarmed the MDC.
Crucial political reforms to ensure free and fair elections are not yet in place. The SADC-supervised Global Political Agreement (GPA), designed to alleviate political tensions and signed by Zimbabwe’s major political parties after the 2008 elections, insisted on a number of political improvements before the next elections. While voters approved the GPA’s major item, a new constitution, the unity government has failed to reform the police, intelligence services and armed forces, as called for by the roadmap, while broadcast media still display an open bias towards Zanu-PF.
A recent police crackdown has resulted in raids on the offices of many civil society organisations, the banning of shortwave radios and a spike in arbitrary arrests. The police recently arrested a prominent human rights lawyer, Beatrice Mtetwa, and the Zimbabwe Human Rights Association director, Okay Machisa, for hampering efforts to create a peaceful run-up to the election. “My arrest exposed the lie that change has taken place in Zimbabwe,” Mtetwa said. “The more things change, the more things just remain the same. We might have had a government of national unity and adopted a new constitution, but nothing has really changed up to now.”
Despite the police crackdowns, Mugabe is determined to hold elections within the next three months. He argues that elections cannot be held after 29 June, as the parliament’s term will have expired. A 30 April, 2013 High Court ruling by Judge President George Chiweshe, a known ally of Mugabe and chairman of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) during the disputed 2008 election, has further strengthened Mugabe’s push for early elections. In his High Court ruling, Mr Justice Chiweshe said “no prevailing circumstances such as war or a state of emergency existed to warrant an extension of parliament and result in the delay,” dismissing a constitutional provision that would allow a three-month deferral of elections until September 2013. Polls suggest that if elections were to take place in June, Zanu-PF would win.
Fears abound that a delay in the elections would weaken the ruling party’s dominant position. As a result, Zanu-PF hardliners have latched on to the High Court ruling. They have denounced the four-year-old unity government and dropped any pretence about committing to the SADC elections roadmap.
The MDC is sounding the alarm bells, worried that the next election is unlikely to be free and fair. “Zanu-PF is preparing to win by hook and crook, the voter roll is yet to be cleaned up and reforms are yet to be implemented. We need the SADC, African Union, United Nations and other international observers to come and ensure a smooth transfer of power,” said Tapiwa Mashakada, the MDC’s deputy secretary-general.
In retaliation against the sanctions imposed in 2003 by the United States, Australia and the European Union on Mugabe and members of Zanu-PF’s top brass, Zimbabwe has barred international observers from monitoring the upcoming elections, according to Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, the minister of foreign affairs (also on the US list of sanctioned Zimbabweans). Zanu-PF has expressed its faith in the ZEC’s organisational skills and in SADC observers to satisfactorily monitor the election.
Rita Makarau, the chairwoman of the newly reconstituted election commission, says that the election supervisor is prepared to run an election any time. The ZEC’s impartiality, however, is disputed: the president unilaterally appoints the ZEC head and commissioners.
Under law, the ZEC is now compelled to release election results within five days of voting. The electoral commission’s smooth running of the 16 March referendum and its release two days later of the results, has emboldened Makarau.
She has denied media reports that the voters’ roll — controlled by registrar-general Tobaiwa Mudede, an ally of Mugabe — is in shambles. Makarau claims that “345,400 dead persons have been removed from the voters’ roll in the last five months, while 60,000 voters had registered as first-time voters. We are noticing a growing interest to register as voters. Currently, there are 5.6 million voters registered on the national roll.”
Zimbabwe’s diaspora, however, is not on the electoral register because they are barred from voting. About four million Zimbabweans are emigrants, according to the International Organisation for Migration. Political observers say Zanu-PF has political reasons for blocking a diaspora vote: most Zimbabwean nationals left after the Zanu-PF-led farm invasions in 2000 and the resulting economic and political instability; they would probably vote against the ruling party.
In its defence, the unity government says it does not have the funds to bankroll a diaspora ballot, let alone the upcoming general election. Tendai Biti, the finance minister, has slashed an initial election budget of $250m to $132m and has indicated it could be reduced to $100m. Unable to tax the Zanu-PF-controlled diamond mines, he is now pressing telecommunications companies Econet Wireless Zimbabwe and Telecel Zimbabwe to foot the elections bill. After appealing to the UN for money, Zanu-PF officials refused a UN request to meet civic society groups, a move which cost them the financial support they had been seeking. A touted $100m loan from South Africa is likely to be channelled to fund the election, although Biti insists that it will be used to “meet budgetary shortfalls”.
