For much of the period between 1966 and 1999, Nigerians endured a succession of military governments that came to power largely through coups d’état. Apart from a brief civilian interlude between 1979 and 1983, the Nigerian Armed Forces dominated the country’s political landscape for more than three decades, and many times when the men in uniform took power, they justified their interventions as necessary responses to corruption, political instability, electoral malpractice, or weak civilian leadership. However, the long era of military rule left deep marks on Nigeria’s political development. While military regimes promised discipline, officials at the time were associated with authoritarianism, the suppression of civil liberties, and the concentration of power within a narrow political class.
Before the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, many Nigerians engaged in sustained pro-democracy activism, civil resistance, and political advocacy to end military rule and restore constitutional governance. Civil society groups, student movements, labour unions, journalists, and pro-democracy campaigners mobilised across the country to demand free elections, accountability, and a return to civilian leadership. These sustained pressures, alongside growing domestic and international calls for a democratic transition, eventually paved the way for the 1999 elections, which laid the foundation for Nigeria’s current democratic order.
The return of democracy that year was therefore widely celebrated not merely as a political transition but as a historic break from decades of military authoritarianism and instability. It symbolised the beginning of a new democratic era built on constitutional governance, electoral participation, and the hope of accountable leadership. But today, the past is quietly re-entering public discourse due to national frustration.
While the call for the return of military take-over may not be dominant on social media, it is present with comments like “only the military can fix this country”, “the military should save us”, and so on. Offline, some youths have protested, particularly in 2024, calling for the military to take power. While these sentiments did not represent the majority, their growing visibility raises concern that the idea of military rule is once again thinkable.
In theory, electoral processes are meant to confer legitimacy on governments and ensure that political power reflects the will of the people. However, the credibility of Nigerian elections has long been undermined by institutional weaknesses, political interference, and public distrust in the bodies responsible for managing the process. One of the enduring challenges has been the limited autonomy of the country’s electoral management body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). While the body is constitutionally recognised as an independent institution, its dependence on the federal government for appointments and funding has consistently raised concerns about its operational and institutional autonomy.
Maurice Iwu’s tenure as INEC chairman remains one of the most controversial in the history of the commission. The 2007 elections conducted under his leadership were widely condemned by both domestic and international observers for widespread irregularities, including vote manipulation, ballot stuffing, violence, and voter intimidation. The scale of the controversy was reflected in the unprecedented number of election petitions that followed, many of which eventually reached Nigeria’s highest courts. Several gubernatorial elections were overturned and rerun, highlighting the depth of the flaws in the process. While the judiciary earned some credibility for overturning fraudulent outcomes in states such as Osun, Ekiti, Ondo, and Edo, the broader electoral process suffered significant reputational damage.
BELOW RIGHT: Nigerian Labor Congress (NLC) officials lead a rally in March 2010, calling for the removal of INEC chairman Maurice Iwu. Photos by: Lea Westerhoff, Pius Utomi Ekpei and Wole Emmanuel / AFP
In fact, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua openly acknowledged that the 2007 election, which brought him to power, was deeply flawed and failed to meet acceptable democratic standards. The 2020-21 introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) raised public expectations that technology would reduce manipulation and improve transparency. Many Nigerians, particularly young voters, energised by social movements and demands for political change, approached the 2023 elections with renewed hope. Voter registration surged, political engagement intensified online, and the elections were widely seen as a defining moment for Nigeria’s democratic future.
However, the aftermath of the elections once again exposed the fragility of public trust in the electoral process. Delays in uploading results to the IReV portal, allegations of irregularities, logistical failures, voter suppression, and disputes over result collation triggered widespread criticism from opposition parties, civil society groups, and sections of the public. Even after courts upheld the INEC-declared results, many citizens remained unconvinced, reinforcing long-standing perceptions that electoral disputes in Nigeria are often settled through institutional power rather than public confidence.
Since then, social media platforms have been flooded with competing narratives, conspiracy theories, misinformation, and emotionally charged political commentary. In moments of economic hardship, poor infrastructure, unemployment, insecurity, weak public services, and political frustration, some online conversations have even drifted towards dangerous nostalgia for military rule, with some users openly suggesting that the military should “take over” to restore order and discipline.
But democracy advocates and governance experts have warned against the normalisation of such rhetoric. Oludiran Olusola, a human rights defender and journalist with International Press Centre (IPC) in Nigeria, told Africa in Fact that public frustration with governance should not be mistaken for genuine support for authoritarianism. “It is the failure of those in power that makes some young Nigerians romanticise alternatives they once fought against. We should rather demand institutional reform than authoritarian alternatives. Those calling for military intervention online and those protesting to demand military intervention do not consider the consequences of authoritarian rule.”
With recent developments, however, the spectre of military intervention has not completely disappeared from Nigeria’s political landscape. In late 2025, reports emerged that several military officers had been detained by Nigerian authorities over what the military initially described as “acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations”. However, months later, the defence headquarters confirmed that investigations had uncovered an alleged conspiracy involving a number of serving and retired security officials accused of plotting to overthrow President Bola Tinubu’s government.
The case escalated further in April this year when the federal government formally arraigned six suspects before the Federal High Court in Abuja on charges bordering on treason, terrorism, conspiracy, and financing terrorism. According to court filings, investigators allege the plot extended beyond isolated military grievances and involved a coordinated network operating across different security institutions. The significance of the incident extended beyond the arrest of the plotters of the attempted coup. Nigeria is Africa’s largest democracy and one of the region’s most influential political and military powers. A successful military takeover in Nigeria would have sent shockwaves across West Africa, particularly at a time when the region has already witnessed military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea.
The online reactions that followed reports of the alleged coup plot exposed a dangerous divide, as some users condemned any suggestion of military intervention, warning against repeating Nigeria’s authoritarian past, while a few others expressed frustration with democratic institutions and argued that civilian governments had failed to improve living conditions.
This development reflects realities elsewhere on the continent. In Mali and Niger, public frustration over insecurity, corruption, and governance failures helped create conditions in which military coups were not only tolerated but openly celebrated by sections of the population. In both countries, juntas have successfully framed their interventions as patriotic corrections to failed civilian leadership. Social media played a critical role in amplifying these narratives, portraying military rulers as defenders of sovereignty and national dignity. So, Nigeria’s alleged coup plot emerged within a wider regional context where democratic legitimacy is increasingly under pressure and military intervention is becoming less politically unthinkable.
As the 2027 general elections draw closer in Nigeria, the country’s challenge is not only to protect democratic institutions but to restore public faith in them. Without credible elections, accountable leadership, and meaningful governance outcomes, the distance between democratic frustration and anti-democratic sentiment may continue to narrow. This means strengthening electoral transparency, ensuring judicial independence and credibility, and addressing the socio-economic challenges that fuel public frustration. It also requires recognising the growing influence of digital spaces in shaping political narratives and engaging more actively in those spaces to counter misinformation and restore confidence.
Adejumo Kabir
Adejumo Kabir Adeniyi is a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa-Nigeria. He is an expert with many years of experience in community development work and governance accountability sector. Before joining GGA, Adejumo worked at Premium Times and HumAngle Media, two of Nigeria’s biggest newspapers specialising on conflict and accountability reporting. His work has featured on esteemed local and international platforms, including Zammagazine, El Pais, IJNet, Premium Times, HumAngle Media and TheCable among others. He is a 2019 recipient of the Diamond Awards for Media Excellence, a 2020 recipient of the Thomson Foundation Young Journalist Award in the United Kingdom, and a 2021 recipient of NAREP Oil and Gas Fellowship.
